Productivity

December 17, 2024

4 science-backed reasons you'll either fail or succeed at your 2025 New Year’s resolution.

As the holiday bells stop ringing, the world continues spinning. We take a moment in time to make up our mind.

Each year, we decide that the new year is the best time to make new goals, and with that reasoning, we come up with big ideas of how it’s going to be different for us. More often than not, we keep just that idea to ourselves. A lot of hope and motivation at first, but the science shows that 64% of us abandon our goal within the first month (reference 1). Here are the scientific reasons why we do that, and how to avoid it going forward.

Is social accounting even fun?

Social psychologist and researcher Ayelet Fishbach studies the science of motivation and found that when she watched the Olympic Games, it didn’t inspire her to exercise. But when her spouse expects her to join him in their basement for their morning workout, it motivates her to get out of bed and into her yoga pants.

Her research and experience show that the best social support comes from someone who wants you to succeed. I see the exact same thing with my wife and me, whether it’s working out together or going to the lake for a cold plunge (see TikTok video of us cold plunging below). By having someone else who shares the same goals, you increase the likelihood of following through. We also see this at Zario: when partners sign up together, they usually stay committed to their goals for longer.

Another underestimated factor is FUN. Research shows that finding the fun path to a goal is key for persistence. But why is fun so important? The reason is that humans respond more strongly to immediate outcomes. If an activity makes someone feel good while they are doing it, they are more likely to persist than if they believe it will make them feel good at some distant point in the future.

Fun is an immediate outcome. It increases intrinsic motivation, the sense that someone is doing something for its own sake. One study found that people who listen to an audiobook while they exercise tend to exercise more. They are intrinsically motivated to engage in the exercising-plus-listening combination.

Research also shows that people respond to the feeling of learning. In a recent paper that is currently in press at Psychological Science, the authors found that even slight discomfort—to the extent that it is immediate—can increase motivation if it is appraised in a certain way. For example, students in improvisation classes who sought discomfort as a sign of growing their abilities were more engaged in the learning process. Humans, in general, like immediate results.

A common mistake people make is envisioning their future selves as more goal-oriented and less fun-seeking than their present selves. When they assume they won’t care about fun, they often choose the wrong job, workout, or healthy meal (reference 2). So when making a goal, make it fun and have someone who counts on you. I’ll share more about accountability partnering and loss aversion below.

The middle problem

We’re highly motivated at the beginning. Over time, our motivation declines as we lose steam. To the extent that our goal has a clear endpoint, such as graduating with a diploma, our motivation picks up again toward the end.

In the middle, it’s harder to get things done and to do them right. In a study, Rima Touré-Tillery, now at Northwestern University, found that people literally cut corners (reference 3). He handed people a pair of scissors and asked them to cut out five identical shapes. At first, they neatly cut their shapes, but by the third shape, they started cutting through more corners. Then, toward the fifth shape, their shapes became neat again.

The trick is to think of middles differently. Katy’s paper on the “fresh start effect” is one intervention that does this. It encourages people to use temporal landmarks such as the first day of the month to “restart” a goal, so instead of being in the middle, you feel like you’re at the beginning again. Alternatively, I suggest that you keep middles short: a monthly saving goal is better than an annual saving goal (reference 4). Seek, therefore, to find new starting points. An idea would be to set aside time in your calendar to follow up on your goal. For me, time boxing activities—even my hobbies or even scheduling social media time—is tremendously powerful.

“I’m too poor to …” is apparently a better excuse to give up!

Many commitments and resolutions hinge on two critical resources: time and money. When either is lacking, it often becomes an easy excuse for failure. And pushing the blame onto something other than yourself is so easy, and we’re all guilty of it at times.

But not all excuses are created equal. According to Dr. Janina Steinmetz of City University of London, pleading a lack of money is far more effective for maintaining a positive image toward others than citing a lack of time.

In a series of six experiments involving around 1,200 participants, Dr. Steinmetz discovered a fascinating pattern: people who claimed financial constraints as the reason for breaking a commitment were viewed more favorably—specifically, as having greater self-control—than those who blamed a lack of time.

In one compelling experiment, 200 online volunteers read about individuals who failed to stick to their healthy eating goals. The first group blamed their failure on the cost of nutritious meals; the second cited a shortage of time. The result? Participants perceived those pointing to financial barriers as having stronger willpower.

The psychology behind these excuses reveals an unexpected insight: time is seen as being within an individual’s control, while money is viewed as less so. “This is surprising because people often reach for ‘lack of time’ as an excuse when they fall short,” Dr. Steinmetz explained. “After all, being busy is associated with high status. But our studies suggest that others believe people could find the time to exercise or prepare healthy meals if they were truly motivated.” Knowing that the global average social media screen time is 2h 27m per day, I also find it hard to believe or trust people who say they “don’t have time.” It’s more that they don’t make time. So if you don’t make time for yourself, who are you making time for? (Ps. this is not an ad for Zario, but it should be).

If financial constraints are therefore a significant factor and apparently valid reason, then a good starting point would be to create goals that won’t cost you any money, or at least not so much that you could potentially use it as an excuse for yourself not to continue or stay on track with your goal. In contrast, I want to share how to use money—and the fear of losing it—as a tool to keep you accountable.

Following the path of least resistance to hack your brain

Terry Bly, a licensed clinical psychologist, notes in a published interview that “Usually New Year's resolutions are optional things, and so if we hate doing it, any goal we set is just pain and we're not really sure what the reward is going to be. We’re not going to do it.” For example, if our resolution is to go to the gym three times a week but we hate going to the gym, we won’t meet our goal.

This summer, a group of four highly driven people and I created an accountability group with a twist: using a psychological trick deeply ingrained in us called loss aversion. Studies show that the “bad” feeling associated with losing $100 is worse than the “good” feeling associated with winning $100. Hence, we teamed up, wrote our goals down, and put $100 each for every goal into an envelope. In addition, we partnered up, and the partner had to put a sum of money on your goal. If the person failed, both people would lose their money.

We met three months later, and the results were amazing. We had goals tied to investing, reading books, doing handstands, splits, cold showers, pushups, and losing body fat. At the end of those months, we met up again, having learned something new, mastered a new skill, transformed our bodies, and most of all, created lasting memories and connections. We ended up with some money left in the pot from the unaccomplished goals, which will be used for a good cause. I want to say thank you to Luca, Terence, Marc, and David, and I’m excited to bring on more people next year. If you’re interested in joining, we’ll be inviting more people to join (even virtually) by signing up on the website: www.theaccounting.club.

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Recommendation for Succeeding at your 2025 New Year’s Resolutions

To stick to your resolutions and avoid falling into the excuse trap, it’s important to reframe your mindset around time and effort. Since time is perceived as controllable, harness this perception to your advantage:

Prioritize and schedule: Treat your resolution as a non-negotiable commitment by carving out time for it in advance. Make it visible on your calendar so it feels as fixed as an appointment.
Start small and build momentum: Break your resolution into tiny, achievable steps to make it feel less daunting. Small wins early on will build the confidence and habits necessary for long-term success.
Make it fun: Research shows that people persist longer when the process itself is enjoyable. Pair your goal with something you love—like listening to music or a podcast during workouts or rewarding yourself with an episode of your favorite show after a productive day.
Create accountability: Involve others in your goals. When others know about your commitments, the external pressure can boost your internal motivation and keep you on track.
Make it expensive: Quitting your goal should be harder than continuing. By stacking the odds in favor like losing money if you fail, or preparing your meal / workout clothes the day before, such that it’s wasted if not eaten/used, you make the desired path easier to follow, than giving up.

By managing your time effectively and turning your resolutions into habits that feel rewarding, you eliminate the need for excuses altogether—because progress becomes inevitable.

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Productivity

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